Recovery and the decision paper

01The problem

You now have a status (behind and over budget), a forecast (19 to 26 March, over by ₦17m to ₦30m), a priced risk register and a view of six change requests. The sponsor has one more question: what should we do? Six recovery options are on the table, and they interact. Some save days on the critical chain; some save none; some can be combined; one needs the medical director's agreement and changes what the laboratory opens with.

A recovery plan isn't "work harder". It's a short list of actions, each with a cost and a measured effect on the date, plus a clear account of what the sponsor must decide and by when.

02The concept

Three ways to recover time

All of them cost something: money, risk, or quality. And all of them only help on the critical chain.

Choosing

Compare options on:

1. Days saved on the forecast, measured by re-running the schedule, not read from the proposal.
2. Extra cost.
3. What it puts at risk: quality, safety, the full test menu, the regulator's trust.
4. Whether the sponsor's priorities allow it. Here the managing director wants the date; the medical director won't open without the full menu; the CFO won't be surprised again.

Where no combination is safe, say so, and say what you'd do if the next problem arrives. A trigger ("if clearance isn't complete by 20 January, we use the reduced menu") turns a worry into a plan.

The decision paper

One page for the sponsor, in this order:

1. The answer: status, forecast and what you recommend, in two sentences.
2. What you need decided, and by when.
3. Evidence: the three numbers that matter (forecast date, cost, risk).
4. Options considered, with cost and days saved, and why the others were rejected.
5. Risks and triggers.
6. What you'll report next, and when.

03Example

Set up the forecast as in lesson 6, then apply each recovery option to the remaining-work schedule:

Forecast with no action: day 104.7, 2027-03-26
option_id                             option  extra_cost_ngn  days_saved
       O1                Carry on as planned               0           0
       O2               Fly the analysers in         5500000           9
       O3     Weekend working on the fit-out         3200000           5
       O4       Start reagent stocking early          450000           4
       O5      Open with a reduced test menu         1200000           6
       O6 Add a molecular testing room first        16000000         -14

An option's "days saved" is what the proposer claims, and it only counts if it lands on the critical chain. Link each option to the task it changes, apply it, and measure:

O2: claims 9 days, really saves 9.0
O3: claims 5 days, really saves 0.0
O4: claims 4 days, really saves 4.0
O5: claims 6 days, really saves 6.0

O3, weekend shifts on the fit-out, claims 5 days and saves none, as in lesson 7. The other three are real. Now try every combination of the four recovery options:

options  finish_day       date  extra_cost_ngn
O2 + O4 + O5        85.7 2027-03-01         7150000
     O2 + O5        89.7 2027-03-05         6700000
     O2 + O4        91.7 2027-03-09         5950000
     O4 + O5        94.7 2027-03-12         1650000
          O2        95.7 2027-03-15         5500000
          O5        98.7 2027-03-18         1200000

The cheapest way to meet the promised day (91) is O2 + O5: air freight and a reduced opening menu, for ₦6.7m, opening on 5 March. Adding O4 takes it back to 1 March, for ₦0.45m more. O2 + O4 alone, with the full test menu, opens on Tuesday 9 March, one working day after the promise, for ₦5.95m.

That's the real decision. Meeting the promise to the day needs the reduced menu, which the medical director has said he won't accept without a clinical case; the full menu costs one day, and the sponsor has to decide whether to take that to the commissioner.

And none of those dates includes the risk register. The expected delay on the critical chain is 13.9 days (lesson 7), so a plan that opens on 9 March with no allowance is a plan with perhaps a 20% chance of doing so. The honest recommendation has three parts:

1. Approve O2 and O4 now. They keep the full menu, cost ₦5.95m, and bring the forecast to 9 March.
2. Keep O5 as a trigger, not a plan. If the analysers have not cleared customs by a named date, use the reduced menu to protect the opening, with the medical director's agreement settled in advance.
3. Tell the commissioner now that the opening will be in the week of 8 March, with a realistic range, instead of letting the date go quietly wrong.

The cost position follows:

Approved budget:           ₦90,750,000
Forecast with recovery:    ₦113,874,000 to ₦126,287,860
Opening with recovery:     2027-03-09

04Walkthrough

1. Rebuild the forecast with no action and note its day and date.
2. Link each recovery option to the task it changes, and measure its real effect.
3. Try every combination, and list finish date and cost.
4. Mark which combinations meet the promised day, and what each one puts at risk.
5. Choose, with reasons, and name a trigger for the option you're holding back.
6. Calculate the revised cost range.
7. Write the decision paper (the first task below), and the answers to the sponsor's hardest questions (the second).

05Practice

06Check your understanding