Module 9 · Business Analysis Fundamentals
The business case
Compare options, including doing nothing, on costs, benefits, payback and risk, and recommend one in a way a decision-maker can trust.
About 25 minutes
The problem
The managing partner has two quotes on her desk: a practice-management system at ₦9m to set up plus ₦3.6m a year, and a proposal from you to fix the process first, with payment terms, reminders and a weekly report, for about ₦1.5m. She asks the question every sponsor asks: "Which one, and why?"
"The system is better" isn't an answer. "The system has more features" isn't either. A decision-maker needs to see what each option costs, what it returns, how soon, and what could go wrong, set side by side with the option of doing nothing. That's a business case.
The concept
The structure of a business case
- The problem and its cost: from your baseline (lesson 4).
- Options, always including do nothing (or "do minimum").
- Costs: one-off (set-up, training) and running (licences, staff time), for each option.
- Benefits: in naira where possible, with the assumptions behind each.
- Comparison: payback, net benefit over a fixed period, and risks.
- Recommendation: the option, why, and what would change your mind.
Turning faster payment into naira
Getting paid sooner releases cash once: annual billing × days saved ÷ 365. Released cash has a value every year: what it would cost to borrow it, or what it could earn.
Two simple measures
- Payback period = one-off cost ÷ annual net benefit. How soon the option pays for itself.
- Net benefit over three years = 3 × annual net benefit − one-off cost.
Larger organisations also use net present value (NPV), which discounts future benefits because a naira next year is worth less than a naira today. For short, small projects like this one, payback and net benefit are usually enough, as long as you state the assumptions.
Assumptions and sensitivity
Every benefit rests on an assumption, such as "days to pay falls from 45 to 30". State each one, and test the important ones: "If days to pay only falls to 38, does the option still pay back within two years?" A case that collapses when one assumption moves a little isn't a strong case.
Example
Ashgrove's options. Annual billing is about ₦600m; overdue debt written off is assumed to be 2% of billing today; released cash is valued at 20% a year, the firm's overdraft rate.
| A. Do nothing | B. Fix the process | C. New system | |
|---|---|---|---|
| One-off cost | 0 | ₦1.5m | ₦9.0m |
| Running cost per year | 0 | ₦0.6m (extra accounts time) | ₦3.6m (licences) |
| Days to pay | 45 | 35 | 30 |
| Write-offs | 2% | 1.5% | 1% |
| Accounts time saved per year | 0 | 0 | ₦1.2m |
For option B: the cash released is ₦600m × 10 ÷ 365 = ₦16.4m, worth ₦3.3m a year at 20%. Write-offs fall by 0.5% of ₦600m, which is ₦3.0m a year. Take off the ₦0.6m running cost and the annual net benefit is ₦5.7m. Payback is ₦1.5m ÷ ₦5.7m, about 3 months, and the net benefit over three years is about ₦15.6m.
You'll work out option C in the practice tasks. The comparison is closer than the sales demo suggested.
Walkthrough
- Write the problem and its cost from your lesson 4 baseline.
- Set out the three options in a table, with costs and the assumptions behind each benefit.
- Calculate cash released, annual net benefit, payback and three-year net benefit for options B and C in a spreadsheet.
- Test sensitivity: what if option C's days to pay only falls to 35? What if its licence cost rises 20%?
- List the risks: lawyers not recording time, data migration, clients ignoring reminders, the supplier going out of business.
- Write the recommendation (the task below).
Practice
Practice
For option C, how much cash is released by cutting days to pay from 45 to 30 on ₦600m of annual billing? (₦600m × 15 ÷ 365. A rounded figure is fine.)
Practice
What is option C's annual net benefit? Add the financing value of the released cash (20% of your previous answer), the write-off saving (1% of ₦600m) and the staff time saved (₦1.2m), then subtract the licences (₦3.6m). (A rounded figure is fine.)
Practice
What is option C's payback period in months? (₦9m one-off cost ÷ annual net benefit × 12.) One decimal place.
Task
8 minWrite your recommendation to the managing partner in 80 to 180 words: which option, why (using numbers from the comparison), the main risk, and what would make you change your mind.
Your work is checked for
- Names an option (A, B or C, or describes it)
- Uses at least three numbers
- Mentions payback or net benefit
- Names a risk
- Says what would change your mind
- Between 80 and 180 words
Check your understanding
Answer every question to check.