Module 6 · Agile Business Analysis
Estimation and prioritisation
Size work relatively with story points and planning poker, and order the backlog by value with cost of delay and WSJF, so the most valuable small things come first.
About 20 minutes
The problem
With two sprints to go before the Surulere pilot, the kiosk app still has 11 stories in its MVP backlog, and the team can't do them all. The sales director wants card payments. The marketing manager wants a promotions banner. The area manager wants Yoruba, Hausa and Igbo. Each is convinced theirs matters most.
"Everything is a priority" means nothing is. The product owner needs a way to compare items that's more objective than who argues loudest. And to compare value with effort, the team needs estimates it trusts, which aren't the same as promises.
The concept
Story points: relative estimates
Instead of estimating hours, agile teams compare items with each other: "Is this bigger or smaller than 'Log in with PIN'?" Story points (often on a Fibonacci-like scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13) capture size, complexity and uncertainty together. They're relative and team-specific: one team's 5 isn't another's.
Planning poker
Each developer privately picks a card, everyone shows at once, and the highest and lowest explain their reasoning. The conversation is the point: a 2 and a 13 on the same story means someone knows something the others don't. Then the team estimates again.
Cost of delay and WSJF
Cost of delay asks: what do we lose for every sprint this item isn't done? A simple version scores three things from 1 to 20 (relative to each other):
- User or business value: how much users or the business gain.
- Time criticality: does the value fall if it's late (a pilot date, a competitor, a regulation)?
- Risk reduction or opportunity: does it reduce a risk, or unlock other work or learning?
WSJF (weighted shortest job first) divides the cost of delay by the size:
WSJF = (value + time criticality + risk reduction) ÷ job size (story points)
High-value, small items rise to the top. Big items need a big cost of delay to justify going first.
Example
The product owner, the BA and two stakeholders scored five remaining MVP stories together:
| Story | Value | Time criticality | Risk reduction | Cost of delay | Points | WSJF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rep sees kiosks that haven't ordered in 14 days | 8 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 3 | ? |
| Reorder last basket | 13 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 8 | ? |
| Pay by card | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 5 | ? |
| Part-payment on delivery | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | ? |
| Yoruba, Hausa and Igbo language options | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | ? |
The scores are judgements, made together and in the open. Their value is that the reasoning is visible and the comparison is consistent.
Walkthrough
- Calculate the WSJF column in the table above.
- Order the five stories by WSJF. Does the order match the product goal of more frequent kiosk ordering?
- Notice that the rep tool, a small story, beats bigger "headline" features. Small, valuable items go first.
- Write the order with a one-line reason for each (the task below).
- Agree with the product owner what happens to the bottom items: split them, move them to "Later", or drop them.
Practice
Practice
What is the WSJF score for Reorder last basket? One decimal place.
Practice
Which story in the table has the highest WSJF? Type its title.
Task
6 minWrite the priority order of the five stories in the table, one per line, in the form Rank. Story | WSJF | reason. Then add a final line starting Decision: saying what should happen to the lowest-ranked story or stories.
Your work is checked for
- Five ranked lines in the form Rank. Story | WSJF | reason
- The rep tool is ranked first
- Has a Decision line
- The decision moves, splits or drops something
Check your understanding
Answer every question to check.