Module 8 · Process Improvement with BPMN and Lean
Designing the future state
Design a better process with Lean patterns (do it earlier, error-proof it, standardise it, level the flow), set targets, and estimate the benefit before you change anything.
About 20 minutes
The problem
You know where the time goes and why. Now the operations director asks for the fix. There's a temptation to jump to the most visible idea, a new clearance system, or to list twenty small tweaks. Neither helps. The first is expensive and slow; the second spreads effort thin.
A good future state attacks the root causes at the constraints, with a small number of changes, each with a clear expected effect. And before anything changes, you estimate the benefit, so that the pilot has a target to beat.
The concept
Lean design patterns
| Pattern | Idea | For Harbourline's clearance |
|---|---|---|
| Do it earlier (front-load) | move checks before the point where errors become expensive | check documents before the vessel arrives, not after |
| Error-proofing (poka-yoke) | make the mistake impossible, or obvious at once | a checklist per importer type, so a pharmaceutical shipment can't be booked without its NAFDAC permit |
| Standard work | one agreed best way, written down, for repeatable steps | the same document check, in the same order, for every file |
| Remove a handoff | fewer passes between people and teams | one named clerk owns a file from booking to release |
| Level the flow | avoid peaks that overload the bottleneck | ask customs for inspection slots as soon as the channel is known |
| Pull, not push | start the next step when it can actually proceed | send the duty notice the moment assessment arrives, with a payment reference |
Future-state targets
For each change, state the measure it should move and by how much, for example: "documents complete on arrival rises from 66% to 85%". Targets should be ambitious but grounded in your analysis: you know how long complete files take, so you can estimate what more complete files would save.
Estimating the benefit
Convert time into money with the cost the customer feels:
annual saving ≈ (current cost per unit − target cost per unit) × units per year
State the assumptions, and test what happens if you only get half the improvement.
Example
Harbourline's future state, as three changes:
- Pre-arrival document check, with an importer-specific checklist (front-load and error-proof). Target: documents complete on arrival from 66% to at least 85%.
- Duty notice with a payment reference, sent the same day as assessment (pull, and the fix from lesson 7's five whys). Target: wait for payment confirmation from about 46 hours to under 24.
- Early inspection booking for Red channel files, once all documents are complete and duty is paid (exploit the constraint). Target: wait for inspection from about 42 hours to under 30.
Change 1 is the one Harbourline piloted from 1 May. Changes 2 and 3 are the next candidates.
Walkthrough
- List your root causes and constraints from lessons 4 to 7.
- Choose at most three changes, each tied to a root cause, using the patterns above.
- Redraw the BPMN model for the future state: where do the checks move? Which loops disappear?
- Set a target for each change.
- Estimate the benefit: calculate demurrage per container before the pilot (the first task below), then the saving if it fell to a target.
Practice
Practice
Before the pilot, what was the average demurrage per container across all clearances (total demurrage ÷ total containers)? (A rounded figure is fine.)
Practice
If demurrage per container fell from your previous answer to a target of ₦150,000, what would the annual saving be on 2,000 containers a year? (A rounded figure is fine.)
Task
8 minPropose a future state for a different process: A Lagos hospital's discharge process, where patients wait about 4 hours for their medicines after the doctor says they can go home. Write three changes, one per line, each in the form Change | Lean pattern | measure and target.
Your work is checked for
- Three lines in the form Change | pattern | measure and target
- Names Lean patterns (earlier, error-proof, standard work, handoff, level, pull)
- Each target includes a number
Check your understanding
Answer every question to check.